Abstract:
This case examines the strategic choices faced by María Corina Machado and the Venezuelan opposition during the 2024 Venezuelan presidential election. Set in an environment characterized by electoral authoritarianism, institutional capture, and pervasive uncertainty, the case invites students to engage with real-world decision-making where information is contested, stakes are high, and outcomes depend as much on execution as on strategy.
Readers trace a series of critical decisions Machado made in her quest to unseat President Nicolás Maduro. Although she won the primary election, Maduro banned her from running in the 2024 general election. Machado's first major decision as opposition leader would be how to respond to her ban: should she lead an election boycott, endorse a replacement, or defy the regime's disqualification? Machado chose a replacement candidate, and prioritized a grassroots vote-monitoring apparatus to prove the results of the election. The case's second decision centers on election night itself: when to declare victory. Despite clear evidence of an opposition win, Maduro declared victory early, and Venezuela entered a period of heightened political repression and violence. The final decision emerges after the election: how to force Maduro to step down. The case ends on Maduro's re-inauguration in January 2025, with a dictator refusing to yield and Machado insisting that Venezuela's democratic transition was inevitable.
Learning Objectives:
The case is intentionally designed to support multiple pedagogical frames and can be taught effectively in a range of courses across public policy, political science, management, and leadership. The teaching plan supports three possible teaching approaches: 1) Decision-Making Under Uncertainty in High-Stakes Political Contexts; 2) Strategy and Coordination in Electoral Authoritarian Regimes, and; 3) Operational Execution and Organizational Capacity in Challenging Environments.
Core Learning Objectives:
- Analyze strategic choices made under conditions of severe uncertainty, political constraints, and high stakes.
- Evaluate how information quality, credibility, and execution shape real-world political and policy outcomes.
- Reflect on the limits of formal rules and institutions in determining outcomes in contested environments.
