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Abstract: This fictionalized two-part case describes a standard policy analysis problem that arises in screening using imperfect tests. It poses the challenge faced by a school principal about whether drug testing for students should be ordered. Under some suggested programs, a relatively large number of students would be screened, and only a relatively small number of students are expected to be true positives. When one works out the predicted results (keeping track of the expected errors in classification made by the imperfect screening test), the anticipated number of innocent students classified by the test as drug users is surprisingly high. The class can discuss whether and in what circumstances the use of screening tests would be appropriate or wise, and can examine whether there are other ways in which the tests might be used (other than large scale screening) that might produce better results.
Learning Objective: The class can discuss whether and in what circumstances the use of screening tests would be appropriate or wise, and can examine whether there are other ways in which the tests might be used (other than large scale screening) that might produce better results.