Abstract:
In the first months of 1979, the Shah of Iran-on whom successive American administrations had relied as a pillar of strength in a strategic and turbulent region-fell from power. Less than a year earlier, no analyst, inside or outside government, came close to predicting that the shah was in such trouble. This case examines the interplay of intelligence assessment and policy in US decision-making with regard to Iran. The lack of intelligence was important, but even more so were the mindsets of policymakers: the mullahs could not govern Iran; the shah could outmaneuver the political opposition, as he had in the 1960s; and, most important, Iran and the shah were so crucial to the United States that American officials could hardly afford to ask themselves, or their analysts, if he might fall.
Learning Objective:
The case can serve as a vehicle for discussing American interests in the Persian Gulf and policymaking on critical regional security issues. Focused more directly on the presumptions, most of them implicit, of policymakers, the class can address the interaction of assessment and policy. To compare US policy toward Iran in the 1970s with US policy toward the Philippines in the 1980s.
