Abstract:
In December 2024, the sudden collapse of the Assad regime plunged Syria into a moment of historic uncertainty. As long-standing political structures disintegrated, Syria's humanitarian needs remained immense and the risks of renewed violence, sectarian reprisals, and institutional vacuum loomed large. Against this backdrop, the case centers on Mohannad Obaido, CEO of the Aga Khan Foundation (AKF) in Syria, as he confronts the immediate and longer-term implications for an organization that had quietly delivered critical humanitarian aid through more than a decade of civil war.
The case explores how AKF became one of the few international organizations able to maintain continuous operations inside regime-held Syria, including its deeply localized model, reliance on Syrian leadership, community-driven decision-making, political neutrality, and emphasis on long-term institution building. Operating from the capital Damascus and Salamiyah, which serves as the operational hub for the central region, the organization built trust across sectarian lines while navigating sanctions, security threats, and government scrutiny. These choices allowed AKF to deliver integrated humanitarian and resilience programming to millions of Syrians even as most international nongovernmental organizations (INGOs) withdrew.
The fall of the Assad regime dramatically altered AKF's operating environment. In March 2025, the newly installed Aga Khan V announced a €100 million pledge to support Syria's recovery--the largest commitment in the history of the Aga Khan Development Network (AKDN). While the pledge created an unprecedented opportunity to expand humanitarian assistance and invest in long-term recovery, it also forced AKF to confront a new risk landscape: heightened political visibility, operational scale-up under strict international sanctions, strained security conditions, and concerns about preserving neutrality and community trust through a volatile political transition.
The case places students at a strategic crossroads. Obaido and AKF/AKDN leadership must decide whether (and how) to scale up from a discreet, localized organization into a national force without undermining the principles that enabled its success. The decisions surrounding geography, sectoral priorities, time horizon, and visibility raise fundamental questions about leadership, localization, and institutional identity in post-conflict reconstruction, offering a rich platform for examining how values-driven organizations adapt when opportunity and risk expand simultaneously.
Learning Objectives:
After reading the case and participating in a class discussion, students will:
- Understand how localized, community-based development models operate in fragile and politically fluid environments.
- Analyze the tradeoffs and institutional challenges of navigating regime change as a development actor.
- Explore the internal and external tensions that arise when scaling or repositioning localized efforts during times of uncertainty.
- Examine decision-making processes within large international organizations facing sudden political transitions and funding opportunities.
